The Indiana Senate seat now held by Democrat Evan Bayh remains a likely Republican pickup on Election Day.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Indiana finds Republican Dan Coats leading Democratic Congressman Brad Ellsworth 50% to 34% in the state's U.S. Senate race. Eight percent (8%) of voters prefer some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) are still undecided.
Last month, Coats, who represented Indiana in the Senate from 1989 to 1999, held a 50% to 29% lead over Ellsworth.
The race remains Solid GOP in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.
Coats has earned 46% to 54% of the vote in matchups with Ellsworth since February. Ellsworth has picked up 29% to 36% of the vote in those same surveys, but his support has been trending down since May. In the latest survey, Ellsworth has gained back some support since last month when he had his poorest showing to date.
Eighty-two percent (82%) of Indiana Republican voters support Coats. Ellsworth picks up 72% support from the state's Democrats, while voters not affiliated with either major political party prefer Coats by eight points.
Since Bayh’s surprise announcement in January that he would not seek reelection, Republicans have been strongly favored to pick up the Indiana seat. Ellsworth faces an uphill struggle in a state that trends Republican.
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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Indiana was conducted on September 14-15, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Sixty-three percent (63%) of Indiana voters favor repeal of the health care law, including 53% that Strongly Favor it. That's well above voter support nationally. Just 32% of the state's voters oppose repeal, with 22% who are Strongly Opposed.
Seventy-six percent (76%) of the voters in the larger group that Strongly Favors repeal of the health care bill support Coats. Ellsworth, who voted for the bill in March, has the support of 80% of those who are Strongly Opposed.
Fifty-six percent (56%) of all Indiana voters view Coats favorably and 35% view him unfavorably. This includes 18% with a Very Favorable view and 13% with a Very Unfavorable one.
Ellsworth is viewed favorably by 38% of voters and unfavorably by 44%, including 10% Very Favorable and 16% Very Unfavorable.
Like voters nationwide, those in Indiana rate the economy as the most important issue this election cycle. Coats holds a slight edge among these voters.
Seventy-four percent (74%) of voters in the state are angry at the current policies of the federal government, including 47% who are Very Angry. Indiana voters are even angrier than voters nationwide.
Fifty-nine percent (59%) describe the U.S. economy as poor. Twenty-two percent (22%) say economic conditions are getting better, but 50% think they're getting worse.
Barack Obama edged John McCain 50% to 49% to win Indiana in the 2008 election, but just 38% now approve of the job he is doing as president, unchanged from August. Sixty-one percent (61%) disapprove. This is higher disapproval than is found nationally in the Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
The state’s Republican governor remains popular. Seventy percent (70%) approve of Mitch Daniels’ job performance, while only 27% disapprove.
For more data from this survey, see toplines. Platinum Members get a deeper look at the numbers.
In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.
In Indiana during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed a close race with McCain edging Obama 49% to 46%. Obama won 50% to 49%. In the Democratic Primary, Rasmussen Polling showed Hillary Clinton defeating Obama 46% to 41%. Clinton won 51% to 49%.