Dan Coats Poll: Double Digits Over Brad Ellsworth

Election 2010: Indiana Senate

Indiana Senate: Coats (R) 51%, Ellsworth (D) 36%

Newly chosen Republican nominee Dan Coats earns 51% support while his Democratic rival Brad Ellsworth’s attracts 36% in the first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Indiana Senate race following Tuesday’s GOP Primary.

Six percent (6%) of likely voters in the state favor some other candidate. Eight percent (8%) remain undecided.

Coats, who previously served in the U.S. Senate from 1989 to 1999, captured 39% of the vote in a five-way race on Tuesday to win the state Republican Senate nomination. His four opponents have now endorsed his candidacy. Ellsworth, a U.S. congressman, is unchallenged for his party’s nomination.

In surveys since Democratic Senator Evan Bayh’s surprise announcement that he would not seek reelection, Coat’s support in match-ups with Ellsworth has grown from 46% in February to 54% last month. Ellsworth’s support in those same surveys has remained in the narrow range of 32% to 34%.

Ellsworth voted in favor of the recently-passed national health care plan, but 59% of Indiana voters favor repeal of that plan. The Indiana finding includes 48% who Strongly Favor repeal. Thirty-eight percent (38%) oppose repeal, with 26% who Strongly Oppose it. Those figures are similar to the national average.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of those who Strongly Favor repeal support Coats, while 80% of those in the smaller group who Strongly Oppose it support Ellsworth.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Indiana was conducted on May 5-6, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Thirteen percent (13%) of Indiana voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Coats, while nine percent (9%) regard him Very Unfavorably.

Ellsworth is seen Very Favorably by nine percent (9%) and Very Unfavorably by 13%.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of Indiana voters support a law like Arizona’s that authorizes local police to check the immigration status of anyone they suspect of being an illegal immigrant. Twenty-nine percent (29%) oppose such a law. Again, those figures are close to the national average.

But 52% of voters in Indiana are at least somewhat concerned that such a law will violate the civil rights of some U.S. citizens. Forty-seven percent (47%) are not very or not at all concerned.

Sixty-five percent (65%) favor a welcoming immigration policy that excludes only “national security threats, criminals and those who would come here to live off our welfare system.”

Most Indiana voters think it is at least somewhat important for Congress to pass energy legislation this year to reduce global warming, but just 38% favor such an energy bill now. Forty-one percent (41%) oppose it.