Rasmussen: GOP's Indiana Edge

Election 2010: Indiana Senate
Indiana Senate: Hill, Ellsworth Trail Three Main GOP Hopefuls
Thursday, February 18, 2010

As expected with incumbent Senator Evan Bayh’s surprise announcement this week that he will not seek reelection, Indiana’s U.S. Senate race is wide open. The three leading Republican contenders all post leads for now over the two most prominently mentioned Democratic hopefuls, but it’s not even clear if those Democrats are in the race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Indiana voters shows former GOP Congressman John Hostettler leading Baron Hill 49% to 31% and Brad Ellsworth 46% to 27%.

Former Senator Dan Coats, whose entry in the race has the blessing of the GOP establishment but has angered some Indiana Republicans, runs ahead of Hill 48% to 32% and ahead of Ellsworth 46% to 32%.

Another announced Republican hopeful, freshman state Senator Marlin Stutzman, leads Hill 41% to 33% and Ellsworth by a 40% to 30% margin.

In the six match-ups, five (5%) to nine percent (9%) prefer another candidate and anywhere from 14% to 21% are undecided.

Last month, a Rasmsussen Reports survey found Bayh leading Hostettler and Stutzman but slightly behind Republican Congressman Mike Pence who decided not to enter the race.

Significantly, Bayh, who had previously been considered a fairly safe bet for reelection, attracted support from just 44% or 45% of voters in any of the match-ups, and incumbents who earn less than 50% of the vote at this stage of a campaign are considered potentially vulnerable. Coats had not yet entered the race.

Thirteen percent (13%) of Indiana voters have a very favorable opinion of Hostettler, while six percent (6%) view him very unfavorably.

Coats is seen very favorably by 16% and very unfavorably by nine percent (9%).

For Stutzman, very favorables are 8% and very unfavorables are 6%.

Eight percent (8%) have a very favorable view of Hill, and 17% view him very unfavorably.

As for Ellsworth, he is viewed very favorably by 10% and very unfavorably by eight percent (8%).

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Fifty percent (50%) of voters in Indiana think the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror. Only 17% say the terrorists are ahead. But voters are evenly divided over whether America is safer today than it was before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks: 40% say yes; 40 say no.

Seventy-three percent (73%) express more confidence in the judgment of the American people over that of the country’s political leaders when it comes to important national issues.

Seventy-two percent (72%) say the federal government has become a special interest group. Seventy-one percent (71%) believe government and big business often work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors.

That helps to explain why most Indiana voters (52%) think states have the right to opt out of federal programs that they don’t agree with.

Seventy percent (70%) approve of the job Republican Governor Mitch Daniels is doing, while 27% disapprove.