A New York Times / FiveThirtyEight forecast in the Indiana race for U.S. Senate gives Democrat Brad Ellsworth a 2.8% chance of victory. Two. Point. Eight… Percent. Ouch.
Just so you have a point of reference, my beloved Chicago Bears have a 3.3% chance of winning the Super Bowl. So if you have the choice between betting on Brad Ellsworth becoming a U.S. Senator or Jay Cutler winning a Super Bowl ring, put your money on No. 6.
Congressman Ellsworth has been drowning in the polls since he entered this race last spring. Even though he went on television early this summer, his numbers are actually getting worse. He recently pulled his ads and is no doubt retooling his efforts to run an all negative, all the time media campaign after Labor Day. It might not matter.
Rasmussen has polled in this race 5 times. In April, the head-to-head numbers were 54%-33%. On August 10th, Ellsworth claimed just 29% of likely voters.
If Democrats can’t change the positions of Indiana voters on issues like healthcare and the economy that define this Senate race, there is little hope that Ellsworth can close a widening gap before the election.